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Capital View
Right in the Eleventh try
Hosting five million visitors from abroad has been the tourism
industry's dream for well over a decade and a half. In the quest for this magic
number a dream paper (officially called a 'strategy paper') was drawn up in
the early 1990s by the then cabinet secretary - an unusual level of initiative.
That paper had envisaged an investment of Rs 36,000 crore from both the public
and private sectors and a whole list of actions were listed to build the infrastructure
to service that many tourists. The move caused a lot of excitement among trade
associations, a few ripples in the national media and received accolades from
travel journals.
As is the case with such grandiose ideas, industry leaders stopped talking about
it. But the dream of five million arrivals somehow sustained itself as a reference
point in any discussion on infrastructural requirements.
Then came a new tourism secretary. He revived the 'strategy paper' in his own
name with a few changes in the previous draft, and it received the same interest
from national and trade media as well as trade conventions as before. The next
step of implementation was neither demanded nor taken. But the dream of five
million tourists persisted. Then there was a change of government. Tourism success
stories from our neighborhood had already made some dent on the socialism-stung
leadership and the spirit of economic reforms wafted over the tourism sector
as well. The prime minister's reference to the importance of tourism from the
ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day confirmed that the sector was now
on the national agenda. The Planning Commission made a five-fold increase in
the allocation for tourism in the Tenth Plan. Aviation stepped out from darkness
into brilliant sunshine. The rest is history.
 This
trip down memory lane was caused by the latest arrival statistics circulated
by the tourism ministry. In the first nine months of this year, 3.06 million
visitors came to India - an increase of 13.1 per cent over the same period in
2005. On the basis of this growth rate (actually many more people travel during
the winter months) we should close the year with a count of 4.40 million, just
6,00,000 short of the coveted five million.
And so 2006 will be remembered as the year in which we crossed the four-million
mark. But wait; with a sustained growth of some 13 per cent in 2005 and 2006
so far, India can be sure of welcoming the five millionth visitor before 2007.
Interestingly, one entity to which the dream coming true will be no surprise
is the Planning Commission. In its Tenth Plan projections, it had set a target
of raising India's share of the world market from 0.39 per cent to 0.62 which
many had thought was ambitious. Translated into numbers, the Commission's target
(based on the then growth of world movements) would come to 5.6 million. Arrivals
now projected would come pretty close to the Commission's calculations for which
it deserves the industry's applause.
The million time-line
The country's march toward the five-million mark is also interesting. The first
million was achieved in 1980. The second, fifteen years later, in 1995. It took
another decade to reach three million in 2004 and only two years to get to four
million in 2006. Hopefully, it will just take a year for its fifth million.
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Tourism ministry mandarins would like us to believe
that it is all thanks to the Incredible India campaign. Some analysts
would give a fair share of the credit to economic reforms and the burgeoning
corporate traffic from abroad
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Tourism ministry mandarins would like us to believe that it
is all thanks to the Incredible India campaign. Some analysts would give a fair
share of the credit to economic reforms and the burgeoning corporate traffic
from abroad. Industry doyens would hasten to remind you that this is all fine.
Indian tourism is definitely on the upswing but in the global context it has
miles to go. Look at China's 37 million arrivals and well over 10 million counts
of smaller countries like Malaysia and Thailand.
We are in the final year of the Tenth Plan and the approach to the Eleventh
Plan scheduled to begin in April 2007 is now under discussion. Here is what
the draft approach paper says on tourism: 'The contribution of tourism services
in the GDP for 2002-03 is estimated at 5.83 per cent including direct and indirect
effects. Tourism, as the third largest net earner of foreign exchange, earned
some US $6 billion in 2005. Total employment, direct and indirect, generated
by the sector is estimated at 38.6 million for 2002-03 constituting 8.27 per
cent of the total employment in the country. During the Eleventh Plan period,
there is potential to generate 27 million additional jobs due to tourism. To
fully benefit from natural, cultural, business, leisure, spiritual, religious,
ecological, adventure and medical tourism, the Eleventh Plan should focus on
creation of adequate tourism infrastructure like modernisation and expansion
of airports, increase in accommodation facilities under star and budget category
and improved road connectivity to tourist destinations.' Industry's lobbying
for tourism's needs, it would seem, has reached the right address…
The writer is a freelance journalist. He can be reached
at rabseth@yahoo.com
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